The Kinetics of Training: A Driven-Nucleation Rate Law for Emergence, Plasticity Loss, and Circuit Control in Language Models

arXiv:2607.27281v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A capability appears in a language model when the last parts of its circuit align in one stochastic attempt, and getting all but one right is worth nothing. We show this no-partial-credit joint alignment is the rate-limiting step of capability formation. Two fingerprints: in a shortcut-free apparatus a five-part circuit missing three waits as long as a three-part circuit missing three (1.19-1.37), so the wait counts missing parts, not size; and on ...