Measuring Judgment Quality in Natural-Language Explanations: Evidence from Forecasting Tournaments

arXiv:2606.30987v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision-makers routinely rely on expert judgments accompanied by written explanations, yet explanation quality is difficult to measure at scale. Forecasting tournaments offer a natural testing ground: probabilistic judgments are paired with natural-language rationales and scored against realized outcomes. We introduce Explanation Quality Markers (EQMs), a set of sixty theory-guided reasoning patterns scored by large language models (LLMs). In a pr...