How Much Human Label Variation Does Formal Semantic Structure Explain?: Group-Level Effects and Item-Level Ceilings in NLI

arXiv:2607.15870v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Human label variation in natural language inference is increasingly treated as signal rather than noise, but how much of it formal semantic structure explains has not been measured directly. We measure it on the 3,113 SNLI and MNLI items of ChaosNLI, using a rule-based operator and monotonicity tagger validated against MED (0.883 agreement at the edit site, 0.807 on the sentence-level summary our analyses consume), three preregistered analysis bloc...