AeroCast: Probabilistic 3D Trajectory Prediction for Non-Cooperative Aerial Obstacles via Transformer-MDN Architecture

arXiv:2606.25122v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Autonomous aerial vehicles operating in shared airspace must predict the future positions of non-cooperative obstacles to plan evasive maneuvers before a collision becomes unavoidable. Unlike cooperative systems that share intent, non-cooperative obstacles such as birds, uncontrolled drones, or debris exhibit multi-modal motion that deterministic predictors cannot adequately represent. Existing methods either rely on recurrent encoders that propaga...