A Transferable Learned Temporal Prior for Transmission Reconstruction and Decision-Relevant Uncertainty in Real Outbreak Labels

arXiv:2606.30842v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Outbreak transmission reconstruction treats epidemiological timing and transmission labels as deterministic ground truth; neither has been systematically evaluated. We trained a logistic regression temporal prior on eleven disease families, locked all parameters before accessing any target outbreak data, and applied it without refitting to a strict Andes virus (ANDV) parent-ranking benchmark of 29 tasks. The locked prior achieved mean reciprocal ra...